How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014-10-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2749/2014/nhess-14-2749-2014.pdf |
| Summary: | Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create
electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are
frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on
electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic
and international networks increases our susceptibility to such
a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of
the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs
for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic
impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the
post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by
international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global
economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over
a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in
countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in
global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damage is of
the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for
future climate change. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |