Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments
The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments sp...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
2016-09-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16511/jdm16511.pdf |