| Summary: | The
heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people
to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a
cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability
judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments
sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. Although the training lasted less
than one hour, it consistently improved accuracy (Brier scores) by 6 to 11%
over the control condition. Cognitive ability and practice also made largely
independent contributions to predictive accuracy. Given the brevity of the
training tutorials and the heterogeneity of the problems posed, the observed
effects are likely to be lower-bound estimates of what could be achieved by
more intensive interventions. Future work should isolate which prongs of the
multipronged CHAMPS KNOW training were most effective in improving judgment on
which categories of problems.
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