Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments

Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments

The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments sp...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Welton Chang, Eva Chen, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2016-09-01
Series:Judgment and Decision Making
Subjects:
forecasting
probability judgment
training
practice
cognitive debiasingNAKeywords
Online Access:http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16511/jdm16511.pdf

Internet

http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16511/jdm16511.pdf

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