Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method
A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warni...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/103/2016/nhess-16-103-2016.pdf |
| Summary: | A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for
rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction
between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an
early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and
warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper
proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an
original approach, called the "event, duration matrix,
performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps:
identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and
warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases;
definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements
report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in
relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes;
evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of
performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During
the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and
warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by
means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst
computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns
equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events,
respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model
performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which
need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning
model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP
method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from
the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |