Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach

• Main Authors: Guglielmo D’Amico, Raimondo Manca, Chiara Corini, Filippo Petroni, Flavio Prattico
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2016-09-01
• Series: Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
• Subjects: Tornadoes modelling; Markov process; semi-Markov process; reward process
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1124462

We propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things.