Personalized Virus Load Curves for Acute Viral Infections

• Main Authors: Carlos Contreras, Jay M. Newby, Thomas Hillen
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021-09-01
• Series: Viruses
• Subjects: viral load; patient specific; mathematical modeling; SARS-CoV-2
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/9/1815

We introduce an explicit function that describes virus-load curves on a patient-specific level. This function is based on simple and intuitive model parameters. It allows virus load analysis of acute viral infections without solving a full virus load dynamic model. We validate our model on data from mice influenza A, human rhinovirus data, human influenza A data, and monkey and human SARS-CoV-2 data. We find wide distributions for the model parameters, reflecting large variability in the disease outcomes between individuals. Further, we compare the virus load function to an established <i>target model</i> of virus dynamics, and we provide a new way to estimate the exponential growth rates of the corresponding infection phases. The virus load function, the target model, and the exponential approximations show excellent fits for the data considered. Our virus-load function offers a new way to analyze patient-specific virus load data, and it can be used as input for higher level models for the physiological effects of a virus infection, for models of tissue damage, and to estimate patient risks.