Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia
Abstract Background Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. T...
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doaj-849af856e93545c1b8ff644ca224c0452020-11-25T02:52:23ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052019-03-0112111310.1186/s13071-019-3399-6Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in AustraliaNicole Crkvencic0Jan Šlapeta1Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of SydneySydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of SydneyAbstract Background Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling. Results Typing of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade ‘Sydney’ haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59–42.21% in 2050 and 27.08–58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline. Conclusions As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13071-019-3399-6Bioclimatic variablescox1HaplotypesMaxent |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Nicole Crkvencic Jan Šlapeta |
spellingShingle |
Nicole Crkvencic Jan Šlapeta Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia Parasites & Vectors Bioclimatic variables cox1 Haplotypes Maxent |
author_facet |
Nicole Crkvencic Jan Šlapeta |
author_sort |
Nicole Crkvencic |
title |
Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia |
title_short |
Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia |
title_full |
Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia |
title_fullStr |
Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia |
title_sort |
climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (ctenocephalides felis) distribution in australia |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
Parasites & Vectors |
issn |
1756-3305 |
publishDate |
2019-03-01 |
description |
Abstract Background Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling. Results Typing of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade ‘Sydney’ haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59–42.21% in 2050 and 27.08–58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline. Conclusions As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities. |
topic |
Bioclimatic variables cox1 Haplotypes Maxent |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13071-019-3399-6 |
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