Problems of demographic security through the prism of an assessment of dynamics of natural and migration processes in Russia

• Main Authors: O. A. Mahova, E. A. Egorova
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Plekhanov Russian University of Economics 2016-10-01
• Series: Statistika i Èkonomika
• Subjects: statistics; population reproduction; the replacement of reproductive generations; migration; illegal migration; national security; demographic security; demographic expansion
• Online Access: https://statecon.rea.ru/jour/article/view/1039

Article retractedCurrently, the literature special attention is given to various adverse factors of sustainable demographic development of modern Russia, especially in the context of problem solving in the field of elimination of threats prejudicial to the country’s national interests. In this regard great scientific and practical interest is attracted by the comprehensive analysis of the barriers and barriers arising on a solution of these tasks. Among a set of threats of a national security special place rightfully occupy a specific demographic threat, including population reproduction and migration, which are of serious concern and generate a broad spectrum of the most diverse social and economic problems, the solution of which is objectively impossible without a complete and comprehensive information on the development of demographic phenomena and processes. This proves the necessity of carrying out the complex analysis of the natural and migratory movement of the population as priority factors of demographic safety that is the goal of this study.In article proved the importance of the demographic factor as a priority in ensuring national interests. The article presents characteristics of the modern demographic situation in Russia and identified the main threats of demographic security of the country. Special attention is paid to issues of population ageing and the replacement of reproductive generations. The characteristics of gender differences in the levels of demographic replacement and their consequences. It was revealed that the future reduction in the number of people of reproductive age is a significant obstacle to a stable demographic development. Against this background, is defined the necessity of arrival of migrants into the country. The paper presents a detailed statistical analysis of current migration situation and the main problems related to migration. In article are defined trends in arrival of migrants to Russia from CIS countries, analyzed the structural shifts in an arrival stream. A comparative analysis of the reproduction of the Russian population and the population of the former Soviet Union, which allowed to justify the problem of demographic expansion. It is established that latent migration processes pose not only a threat to demographic security, but also harm the national interests of Russia. Overall, the analysis allowed to formulate a conclusion about the current unfavorable demographic situation in the country, created by the development of demographic processes in the recent past, representing an significant obstacle to sustainable socio-economic development of the country. This situation encourages the authorities to more active intervention, reminding that the human resource is one of the basic resources of any state, without which the country simply can not exist.