Approaches to Methods of Risk Analysis and Assessment Regarding the Gas Supply to a City

• Main Authors: Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak, Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2018-11-01
• Series: Energies
• Subjects: gas distribution system; failure analysis; risk analysis; gas-supply safety
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/12/3304

Analysis and assessment of the reliability and safety of a gas-supply system is a key issue, given its status as critical infrastructure. A gas-supply system is characterised by continuous operation and a consequent need to achieve a high level of operating reliability and safety. Such a system has its unique aspects, with particular elements having their different functions while also simultaneously interacting in the context of the integral whole. In such circumstances, risk analysis can prove useful in planning activity to prevent damage, and also in the devising of rescue scenarios. Thus, the purpose of the analysis presented here has been to supply the information that is necessary in decision-making relating to risk reduction. One of the most comprehensive assessment methods is based on the expected value of gas shortage. Basic formulae with which to determine a generalised indicator of system reliability are also presented, with risk viewed as synonymous with the unreliability of gas supply. This paper then proposes a method by which an indicator of the expected efficiency of operation may also be determined as the quotient of chance and absolute risk. The thinking in this article has been developed on the basis of data from a real gas-supply system, while the computational methods deployed allowed applications to draw conclusions regarding possible modification of the expected gas shortages method.