Machine Learning for Identifying Demand Patterns of Home Energy Management Systems with Dynamic Electricity Pricing

• Main Authors: Derck Koolen, Navid Sadat-Razavi, Wolfgang Ketter
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2017-11-01
• Series: Applied Sciences
• Subjects: dynamic pricing; customer segmentation; recommendation systems; demand response; demand side management; home energy management system; machine learning
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/7/11/1160

Energy management plays a crucial role in providing necessary system flexibility to deal with the ongoing integration of volatile and intermittent energy sources. Demand Response (DR) programs enhance demand flexibility by communicating energy market price volatility to the end-consumer. In such environments, home energy management systems assist the use of flexible end-appliances, based upon the individual consumer’s personal preferences and beliefs. However, with the latter heterogeneously distributed, not all dynamic pricing schemes are equally adequate for the individual needs of households. We conduct one of the first large scale natural experiments, with multiple dynamic pricing schemes for end consumers, allowing us to analyze different demand behavior in relation with household attributes. We apply a spectral relaxation clustering approach to show distinct groups of households within the two most used dynamic pricing schemes: Time-Of-Use and Real-Time Pricing. The results indicate that a more effective design of smart home energy management systems can lead to a better fit between customer and electricity tariff in order to reduce costs, enhance predictability and stability of load and allow for more optimal use of demand flexibility by such systems.