STRATEGIC PLANNING OF ARCTIC SHELF DEVELOPMENT USING FRACTAL THEORY TOOLS

• Main Authors: VASILTSOV V. S., VASILTSOVA V. M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Saint-Petersburg Mining University 2018-12-01
• Series: Zapiski Gornogo Instituta
• Subjects: Arctic shelf; oil and gas megaproject; strategic planning; fractals; recurrence; risks; neural network programming
• Online Access: http://pmi.spmi.ru/index.php/pmi/article/view/8368
• ISSN: 2411-3336; 2541-9404

The paper justifies the necessity to utilize new methods of strategic planning in oil and gas field exploitation in the Arctic shelf during the implementation of high-technology diversified model of development for oil and gas companies (OGC) based on principles and tools of fractal theory. It has been proved that despite its challenging conditions the Arc-tic represents not only resource potential of the country and a guarantee of national safety, but also a key driver of mar-ket self-identification and self-organization of OGCs. Identified and analyzed problems in institutional procurement of shelf development and utilized methods of strategic planning and project management, both on the levels of state and corporate governance, demonstrate that reductive approach of the fractal theory allows to take into account diversifica-tion of heterogeneous multicomponent project models, which can be reduced to a single management decision with in-verse iterations of neural network modelling. Suggested approach is relevant for strategic planning not only on the stage of investment portfolio justification, but also for identification and assessment of project risks, ranking of projects ac-cording to the order of their implementation, back-and-forth management (monitoring and supervision) and project completion. It has been detected that such basic properties of the fractal as self-similarity, recurrence, fragmentation and correlation between all fractal dimensions allow to systematize chaotically changing values of market parameters in the Arctic shelf development project, which provides an opportunity to forecast market development with minimal predic-tion errors.