Forecasting model for water-energy nexus in Alberta, Canada

• Main Author: Babkir Ali
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2018-12-01
• Series: Water-Energy Nexus
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588912518300122

Water demand coefficients and energy projections were set for Alberta province in Canada. A data-intensive model is structured to combine the gathered data to cover primary fuels and electricity generation pathways in Alberta. Profiles of historical and forecasted water demand for the energy sector in Alberta were developed in terms of total amounts of water consumption and water withdrawals to cover the time horizon from 2009 to 2030. The results were verified and showed that total water consumption for primary fuels in Alberta during 2009 was 358 million m3 with an average annual growth rate of 9%. The total water consumption for electricity generation in Alberta was 171 million m3 in 2009 and grows at an average rate of 4% per year. Sensitivity analysis shows that improvement by 1% in water consumption coefficient or reduction in expected production of ethanol from wheat will save annually for Alberta on average about 4.3 million m3 of water. The same sensitivity factor of 1% was applied to electricity generation pathways and 1.5 million m3 of water per year could be saved in consumption through a pathway of the natural gas combined cycle with cooling towers. Keywords: Alberta, Water forecast, Primary fuels, Electricity generation, Water-energy nexus