Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks

Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks

Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2017-10-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01033-1
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spelling doaj-7e6f7fcc30c3475fa6769a280c10206d2021-05-11T07:26:52ZengNature Publishing GroupNature Communications2041-17232017-10-018111010.1038/s41467-017-01033-1Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaksSen Pei0Jeffrey Shaman1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia UniversityDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia UniversityInaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01033-1
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Sen Pei
Jeffrey Shaman
spellingShingle Sen Pei
Jeffrey Shaman
Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
Nature Communications
author_facet Sen Pei
Jeffrey Shaman
author_sort Sen Pei
title Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_short Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_full Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_fullStr Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
title_sort counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
publisher Nature Publishing Group
series Nature Communications
issn 2041-1723
publishDate 2017-10-01
description Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01033-1
work_keys_str_mv AT senpei counteractingstructuralerrorsinensembleforecastofinfluenzaoutbreaks
AT jeffreyshaman counteractingstructuralerrorsinensembleforecastofinfluenzaoutbreaks
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