Generalised block bootstrap and its use in meteorology

• Main Authors: L. Varga, A. Zempléni
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2017-06-01
• Series: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
• Online Access: http://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/3/55/2017/ascmo-3-55-2017.pdf

In an earlier paper, Rakonczai et al.(2014) emphasised the importance of investigating the effective sample size in case of autocorrelated data. The simulations were based on the block bootstrap methodology. However, the discreteness of the usual block size did not allow for exact calculations. In this paper we propose a new generalisation of the block bootstrap methodology, which allows for any positive real number as expected block size. We relate it to the existing optimisation procedures and apply it to a temperature data set. Our other focus is on statistical tests, where quite often the actual sample size plays an important role, even in the case of relatively large samples. This is especially the case for copulas. These are used for investigating the dependencies among data sets. As in quite a few real applications the time dependence cannot be neglected, we investigated the effect of this phenomenon on the used test statistic. The critical value can be computed by the proposed new block bootstrap simulation, where the block size is determined by fitting a VAR model to the observations. The results are illustrated for models of the used temperature data.