METHODS OF RISK MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS’ EXPERTISE OF MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE ENTERPRISES

• Main Author: Andrii Kovalskyi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Izdevnieciba “Baltija Publishing” 2020-12-01
• Series: Three Seas Economic Journal
• Subjects: decision-making; technique of modelling; municipal infrastructure enterprises; forecast; uncertainty
• Online Access: http://baltijapublishing.lv/index.php/threeseas/article/view/977
• ISSN: 2661-5150; 2661-5290

The issue of risk assessment of investment projects at the state level is not given much attention and there is no proposed method for assessing such risks. Considering the transition of public utilities under the conditions of decentralisation to the need for self-sufficiency, the latter must use a well-established methodology for assessing risks and uncertainties, which is carried out by private sector entities expert assessments, or methods of mathematical statistics when evaluating their investment projects. A partial answer to the lack of a methodology for assessing the risk levels of investment projects should be the concept of modelling decision-making under uncertainty. The concept of modelling decision-making is based on two essential properties that constitute the very essence of the modelling process. Firstly, the model must be similar to the object under study; secondly, it must be more direct than the object under study to be considered. The main purpose of the model is the ability to conduct experiments with the model, analysis and study, which are impossible with the object under study. The paper develops the concept of modelling decision-making in conditions of uncertainty for investment projects’ expertise of municipal infrastructure enterprises, the essence of which is to develop different scenarios for the business entity using the technique of modelling decision-making, taking into account different parameters and characteristics under uncertainty. Uncertainty decision-that decision-making is based on the fact that the probabilities of different scenarios for the entity making the risk decision are unknown.