Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)

<p>The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of S...

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Main Authors: A. Bevilacqua, A. Aravena, A. Neri, E. Gutiérrez, D. Escobar, M. Schliz, A. Aiuppa, R. Cioni
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2021-05-01
Series:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Online Access:https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/1639/2021/nhess-21-1639-2021.pdf
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spelling doaj-7d6eb1eee58a4b9e8bacaaeb95a77e8a2021-05-28T06:28:12ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812021-05-01211639166510.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)A. Bevilacqua0A. Aravena1A. Aravena2A. Neri3E. Gutiérrez4D. Escobar5M. Schliz6A. Aiuppa7R. Cioni8Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze, Firenze, ItalyLaboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Clermont-Ferrand, FranceIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, ItalyDirección del Observatorio Ambiental, MARN, San Salvador, El SalvadorDirección del Observatorio Ambiental, MARN, San Salvador, El SalvadorInstituto de Geología y Geofísica, UNAN, Managua, NicaraguaDipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze, Firenze, Italy<p>The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (<span class="inline-formula">∼2.4</span> million people) and Managua (<span class="inline-formula">∼1.4</span> million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present <i>thematic</i> vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/1639/2021/nhess-21-1639-2021.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author A. Bevilacqua
A. Aravena
A. Aravena
A. Neri
E. Gutiérrez
D. Escobar
M. Schliz
A. Aiuppa
R. Cioni
spellingShingle A. Bevilacqua
A. Aravena
A. Aravena
A. Neri
E. Gutiérrez
D. Escobar
M. Schliz
A. Aiuppa
R. Cioni
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
author_facet A. Bevilacqua
A. Aravena
A. Aravena
A. Neri
E. Gutiérrez
D. Escobar
M. Schliz
A. Aiuppa
R. Cioni
author_sort A. Bevilacqua
title Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
title_short Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
title_full Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
title_fullStr Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
title_full_unstemmed Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
title_sort thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the san salvador volcanic complex (el salvador) and nejapa-chiltepe volcanic complex (nicaragua)
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
issn 1561-8633
1684-9981
publishDate 2021-05-01
description <p>The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (<span class="inline-formula">∼2.4</span> million people) and Managua (<span class="inline-formula">∼1.4</span> million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present <i>thematic</i> vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.</p>
url https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/1639/2021/nhess-21-1639-2021.pdf
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