Identification des variables expliquant la distribution spatiale d’oiseaux de la forêt boréale et modélisation de tendances futures : une approche multivariée

• Main Authors: Jonathan Gaudreau, Liliana Perez, Pierre Legendre
• Format: Article
• Language: deu
• Published: Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités 2015-05-01
• Series: Cybergeo
• Subjects: ecology; multivariate analysis; biogeography; Quebec; climate change
• Online Access: http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/26969

Climate is getting more significant in the study of population dynamics. Experts agree on the fact that climate change will likely be one of the main drivers of ecological change in upcoming decades. The goal of this research is to identify the main drivers of Québec boreal bird species distribution, in order to generate models of future spatial distributions under different climate scenarios. For this purpose two multivariate approaches are employed (Redundancy Canonical Analysis – RDA – and variation partitioning). A total of 39 bird species are selected as well as bioclimatic variables, anthropic disturbances, forest cover and elevation. Bioclimatic variables explain 53% of the variation in species distribution, while resource variables, comprising elevation and percentage of wet areas, are responsible of 5% and anthropic variables of 1%. Model results for two species confirm the hypothesis that the spatial distribution of boreal birds will be deeply modified by climate change and that the birds will likely move towards higher latitude or altitude, following the warming intensity.