| Summary: | Purpose. The purpose of this article is to assess trends in milk prices in Ukraine in comparison with other countries, identify patterns in their change and to test our own methodological approach to estimating the level of variation in time series.
Methodology / approach. During the research we used a dialectical method of cognition, a systematic approach to the study of economic phenomena and processes, a monographic method (analysis of scientific achievements of domestic and foreign scientists on pricing, milk market, the impact of price levels on production efficiency in dairy farming). Special research methods, such as abstract-logical (for theoretical generalizations and formulation of conclusions), economic-statistical (when estimating the most pronounced cycles in time series, the level of their relationship, variation), graphic (when constructing graphical images of dynamic processes) were used in the research. The coefficient of the predicted values variation was also proposed and tested.
Results. As a result of the study, it was found that a 12 month cycle in the milk market in Ukraine was the most pronounced, which was an evidence of the seasonal nature of price changes. Similar patterns were not found in other countries under the study. There were price changes under the influence of supply and demand for dairy products as the predominant trend. The nature and level of the relationship between different milk markets were also determined by regression analysis. It was found that milk prices expressed in US dollars in Ukraine were closely related to their value in New Zealand, the European Union. Based on the obtained result, changes in milk prices in Ukraine can be predicted.
Originality / scientific novelty. A variation level in the time series was further assessed through approbation of the forecast values coefficient, which allowed evaluating the situation in different countries objectively.
Practical value / implications. Practical significance of the obtained results is that the identification of patterns in the dynamics of milk prices changes in Ukraine should encourage state authorities to develop policy, minimizing their variability to make them more predictable.
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