Modelling and simulating Chikungunya spread with an unstructured triangular cellular automata

• Main Authors: Gerardo Ortigoza, Fred Brauer, Iris Neri
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2020-01-01
• Series: Infectious Disease Modelling
• Subjects: 68Q80; 68U20; 92D30
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042719300454

In this work we propose a mathematical model to simulate Chikungunya spread; the spread model is implemented in a C++ cellular automata code defined on unstructured triangular grids and space visualizations are performed with Python. In order to simulate the time space spread of the Chikungunya diseases we include assumptions such as: heterogeneous human and vector densities, population mobility, geographically localized points of infection using geographical information systems, changes in the probabilities of infection, extrinsic incubation and mosquito death rate due to environmental variables. Numerical experiments reproduce the qualitative behavior of diseases spread and provide an insight to develop strategies to prevent the diseases spread.