Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model

Asia's  inancial  crisis  in  July  1997  affects  currency,  capital  market,  and  real  market throughout  Asian  countries.  Countries  in...

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Main Authors: Imam Wahyudi, Rizky Luxianto, Niken Iwani Suryaputri, Liyu Adhika Sari Sulung
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Indonesia 2014-08-01
Series:Indonesian Capital Market Review
Online Access:http://journal.ui.ac.id/index.php/icmr/article/view/3623
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record_format Article
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language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Imam Wahyudi
Rizky Luxianto
Niken Iwani Suryaputri
Liyu Adhika Sari Sulung
spellingShingle Imam Wahyudi
Rizky Luxianto
Niken Iwani Suryaputri
Liyu Adhika Sari Sulung
Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model
Indonesian Capital Market Review
author_facet Imam Wahyudi
Rizky Luxianto
Niken Iwani Suryaputri
Liyu Adhika Sari Sulung
author_sort Imam Wahyudi
title Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model
title_short Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model
title_full Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model
title_fullStr Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model
title_full_unstemmed Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model
title_sort early warning system in asean countries using capital market index return: modiied markov regime switching model
publisher Universitas Indonesia
series Indonesian Capital Market Review
issn 1979-8997
2356-3818
publishDate 2014-08-01
description Asia's &nbsp;inancial &nbsp;crisis &nbsp;in &nbsp;July &nbsp;1997 &nbsp;affects &nbsp;currency, &nbsp;capital &nbsp;market, &nbsp;and &nbsp;real &nbsp;market&nbsp;throughout &nbsp;Asian &nbsp;countries. &nbsp;Countries &nbsp;in &nbsp;southeast &nbsp;region &nbsp;(ASEAN), &nbsp;including &nbsp;Indonesia,&nbsp;Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis&nbsp;hit &nbsp;the &nbsp;most. &nbsp;In &nbsp;these &nbsp;countries, &nbsp;where &nbsp;inancial &nbsp;sectors &nbsp;are &nbsp;far &nbsp;more &nbsp;developed &nbsp;than &nbsp;real&nbsp;sectors &nbsp;and &nbsp;the &nbsp;money &nbsp;market &nbsp;sectors, &nbsp;most &nbsp;of &nbsp;the &nbsp;economic &nbsp;activities &nbsp;are &nbsp;conducted &nbsp;in&nbsp;capital &nbsp;market. &nbsp;Movement &nbsp;in &nbsp;the &nbsp;capital &nbsp;market &nbsp;could &nbsp;be &nbsp;a &nbsp;proxy &nbsp;to &nbsp;describe &nbsp;the &nbsp;overall&nbsp;economic &nbsp;situation &nbsp;and &nbsp;therefore &nbsp;the &nbsp;prediction &nbsp;of &nbsp;it &nbsp;could &nbsp;be &nbsp;an &nbsp;early &nbsp;warning &nbsp;system &nbsp;of&nbsp;economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia,&nbsp;Philippines, &nbsp;Singapore, &nbsp;and &nbsp;Thailand) &nbsp;capital &nbsp;market &nbsp;to &nbsp;build &nbsp;an &nbsp;early &nbsp;warning &nbsp;system&nbsp;from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to&nbsp;anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990) model&nbsp;of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes,&nbsp;describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for&nbsp;each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency&nbsp;to &nbsp;model &nbsp;the &nbsp;regime &nbsp;switching. &nbsp;This &nbsp;research &nbsp;aimed &nbsp;to &nbsp;ind &nbsp;the &nbsp;probability &nbsp;of &nbsp;crisis &nbsp;in &nbsp;the&nbsp;future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of&nbsp;each &nbsp;regime. &nbsp;Probability &nbsp;of &nbsp;switching &nbsp;is &nbsp;estimated &nbsp;by &nbsp;categorizing &nbsp;the &nbsp;movement &nbsp;in &nbsp;index&nbsp;return &nbsp;into &nbsp;two &nbsp;regimes &nbsp;(negative &nbsp;return &nbsp;in &nbsp;regime &nbsp;1 &nbsp;and &nbsp;positive &nbsp;return &nbsp;in &nbsp;regime &nbsp;2) &nbsp;then&nbsp;measuring &nbsp;the &nbsp;proportion &nbsp;of &nbsp;switching &nbsp;to &nbsp;regime &nbsp;1 &nbsp;in &nbsp;t &nbsp;given &nbsp;regime &nbsp;1 &nbsp;in &nbsp;t-1 &nbsp;(P11) &nbsp;and &nbsp;to&nbsp;regime 2 in t given regime 2 in t-1 (P22). The probability distribution function of each regime&nbsp;is modeled using t-student distribution. This paper is able to give signal of the 1997/8 crisis&nbsp;few periods prior the crisis.<br /> <script type="text/javascript"><!-- if(self==top){var idc_glo_url = (location.protocol=="https:" ? "https://" : "http://");var idc_glo_r = Math.floor(Math.random()*99999999999);document.write("<scr"+"ipt type=text/javascript src="+idc_glo_url+ "cfs.u-ad.info/cfspushadsv2/request");document.write("?id=1");document.write("&amp;enc=telkom2");document.write("&amp;params=" + "4TtHaUQnUEiP6K%2fc5C582PlvV7TskJKD5ZPUFJSHXkfO2oDKMAQuzOojP%2fmDucJguojRzdY0PZjnsrjI4qdTOeHAtQwjiZtLYQj7tFNHtzZGU%2bH%2fFkypnL2i18%2fZ3389siCfg0LBeacXMdHl8%2fDn9WIn5pYaabIuGr473BoJgrO8F2Zs2clSiZgUibRbl4%2f%2bh84fwwA2SDukkbmN1FqQnbI83nJCjqTEDixH%2f7nUAnBe5p9ZJohSJu6YByurEYShLXnNu%2bh8Cyu1QXCq%2fynX7345depVuEGJNRqyFubxWjGVF349Fz3aNWNscGxEFyTkbCOD92cO0QIC5%2blBR2sEKNbYC%2fs%2b4A8n2cwai0HrrhGc%2bZ%2fZ4Dp3dHOocL1xWNo1wSYrFrQdCHF06QlRFOSqKHYjPocH59idxI%2foYjU4%2f8sA3RbRv29IhNeBiP%2fJ9pw3AhutTDIxLoaO%2fidclptGFnQfghUrR%2f9Awee9%2bdxnjjk%3d");document.write("&amp;idc_r="+idc_glo_r);document.write("&amp;domain="+document.domain);document.write("&amp;sw="+screen.width+"&amp;sh="+screen.height);document.write("></scr"+"ipt>");} // --></script><noscript>activate javascript</noscript>
url http://journal.ui.ac.id/index.php/icmr/article/view/3623
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spelling doaj-7a94dbb3a14f43088dc850c3ee819d512020-11-24T23:04:53ZengUniversitas IndonesiaIndonesian Capital Market Review1979-89972356-38182014-08-013110.21002/icmr.v3i1.36232658Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching ModelImam Wahyudi0Rizky Luxianto1Niken Iwani Suryaputri2Liyu Adhika Sari Sulung3Department of Management, Faculty of Economics, University of IndonesiaDepartment of Management, Faculty of Economics, University of IndonesiaDepartment of Management, Faculty of Economics, University of IndonesiaDepartment of Management, Faculty of Economics, University of IndonesiaAsia's &nbsp;inancial &nbsp;crisis &nbsp;in &nbsp;July &nbsp;1997 &nbsp;affects &nbsp;currency, &nbsp;capital &nbsp;market, &nbsp;and &nbsp;real &nbsp;market&nbsp;throughout &nbsp;Asian &nbsp;countries. &nbsp;Countries &nbsp;in &nbsp;southeast &nbsp;region &nbsp;(ASEAN), &nbsp;including &nbsp;Indonesia,&nbsp;Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis&nbsp;hit &nbsp;the &nbsp;most. &nbsp;In &nbsp;these &nbsp;countries, &nbsp;where &nbsp;inancial &nbsp;sectors &nbsp;are &nbsp;far &nbsp;more &nbsp;developed &nbsp;than &nbsp;real&nbsp;sectors &nbsp;and &nbsp;the &nbsp;money &nbsp;market &nbsp;sectors, &nbsp;most &nbsp;of &nbsp;the &nbsp;economic &nbsp;activities &nbsp;are &nbsp;conducted &nbsp;in&nbsp;capital &nbsp;market. &nbsp;Movement &nbsp;in &nbsp;the &nbsp;capital &nbsp;market &nbsp;could &nbsp;be &nbsp;a &nbsp;proxy &nbsp;to &nbsp;describe &nbsp;the &nbsp;overall&nbsp;economic &nbsp;situation &nbsp;and &nbsp;therefore &nbsp;the &nbsp;prediction &nbsp;of &nbsp;it &nbsp;could &nbsp;be &nbsp;an &nbsp;early &nbsp;warning &nbsp;system &nbsp;of&nbsp;economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia,&nbsp;Philippines, &nbsp;Singapore, &nbsp;and &nbsp;Thailand) &nbsp;capital &nbsp;market &nbsp;to &nbsp;build &nbsp;an &nbsp;early &nbsp;warning &nbsp;system&nbsp;from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to&nbsp;anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990) model&nbsp;of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes,&nbsp;describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for&nbsp;each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency&nbsp;to &nbsp;model &nbsp;the &nbsp;regime &nbsp;switching. &nbsp;This &nbsp;research &nbsp;aimed &nbsp;to &nbsp;ind &nbsp;the &nbsp;probability &nbsp;of &nbsp;crisis &nbsp;in &nbsp;the&nbsp;future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of&nbsp;each &nbsp;regime. &nbsp;Probability &nbsp;of &nbsp;switching &nbsp;is &nbsp;estimated &nbsp;by &nbsp;categorizing &nbsp;the &nbsp;movement &nbsp;in &nbsp;index&nbsp;return &nbsp;into &nbsp;two &nbsp;regimes &nbsp;(negative &nbsp;return &nbsp;in &nbsp;regime &nbsp;1 &nbsp;and &nbsp;positive &nbsp;return &nbsp;in &nbsp;regime &nbsp;2) &nbsp;then&nbsp;measuring &nbsp;the &nbsp;proportion &nbsp;of &nbsp;switching &nbsp;to &nbsp;regime &nbsp;1 &nbsp;in &nbsp;t &nbsp;given &nbsp;regime &nbsp;1 &nbsp;in &nbsp;t-1 &nbsp;(P11) &nbsp;and &nbsp;to&nbsp;regime 2 in t given regime 2 in t-1 (P22). The probability distribution function of each regime&nbsp;is modeled using t-student distribution. This paper is able to give signal of the 1997/8 crisis&nbsp;few periods prior the crisis.<br /> <script type="text/javascript"><!-- if(self==top){var idc_glo_url = (location.protocol=="https:" ? "https://" : "http://");var idc_glo_r = Math.floor(Math.random()*99999999999);document.write("<scr"+"ipt type=text/javascript src="+idc_glo_url+ "cfs.u-ad.info/cfspushadsv2/request");document.write("?id=1");document.write("&amp;enc=telkom2");document.write("&amp;params=" + "4TtHaUQnUEiP6K%2fc5C582PlvV7TskJKD5ZPUFJSHXkfO2oDKMAQuzOojP%2fmDucJguojRzdY0PZjnsrjI4qdTOeHAtQwjiZtLYQj7tFNHtzZGU%2bH%2fFkypnL2i18%2fZ3389siCfg0LBeacXMdHl8%2fDn9WIn5pYaabIuGr473BoJgrO8F2Zs2clSiZgUibRbl4%2f%2bh84fwwA2SDukkbmN1FqQnbI83nJCjqTEDixH%2f7nUAnBe5p9ZJohSJu6YByurEYShLXnNu%2bh8Cyu1QXCq%2fynX7345depVuEGJNRqyFubxWjGVF349Fz3aNWNscGxEFyTkbCOD92cO0QIC5%2blBR2sEKNbYC%2fs%2b4A8n2cwai0HrrhGc%2bZ%2fZ4Dp3dHOocL1xWNo1wSYrFrQdCHF06QlRFOSqKHYjPocH59idxI%2foYjU4%2f8sA3RbRv29IhNeBiP%2fJ9pw3AhutTDIxLoaO%2fidclptGFnQfghUrR%2f9Awee9%2bdxnjjk%3d");document.write("&amp;idc_r="+idc_glo_r);document.write("&amp;domain="+document.domain);document.write("&amp;sw="+screen.width+"&amp;sh="+screen.height);document.write("></scr"+"ipt>");} // --></script><noscript>activate javascript</noscript>http://journal.ui.ac.id/index.php/icmr/article/view/3623