| Summary: | Assessing model performance is a continuous challenge for modelers of land use change. Comparing land use models with two neutral models, including the random constraint match model (RCM) and growing cluster model (GrC) that consider the initial land use patterns using a variety of evaluation metrics, provides a new way to evaluate the accuracy of land use models. However, using only two neutral models is not robust enough for reference maps. A modified neutral model that combines a density-based point pattern analysis and a null neutral model algorithm is introduced. In this case, the modified neutral model generates twenty different spatial pattern results using a random algorithm and mid-point displacement algorithm, respectively. The random algorithm-based modified neutral model (Random_MNM) results decrease regularly with the fragmentation degree from 0 to 1, while the mid-point displacement algorithm-based modified neutral model (MPD_MNM) results decrease in a fluctuating manner with the fragmentation degree. Using the modified neutral model results as benchmarks, a new proposed land use model, the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model, for Jilin Province of China from 2003 to 2013 is assessed using the Kappa statistic and Kappain-out statistic for simulation accuracy. The results show that the DLS model output presents higher Kappa and Kappain-out values than all the twenty neutral model results. The map comparison results indicate that the DLS model could simulate land use change more accurately compared to the Random_MNM and MPD_MNM. However, the amount and spatial allocation of land transitions for the DLS model are lower than the actual land use change. Improving the accuracy of the land use transition allocations in the DLS model requires further investigation.
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