Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

ABSTRACT: In preparation for the Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-IV), a summary of recent research studies and the forecasting challenges of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall has been prepared. The extreme rainfall accumulations in Hurricane Harvey (2017) ne...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Kevin Cheung, Zifeng Yu, Russell L. Elsberry, Michael Bell, Haiyan Jiang, Tsz Cheung Lee, Kuo-Chen Lu, Yoshinori Oikawa, Liangbo Qi, Robert F. Rogers, Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2018-05-01
Series:Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603219300190
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Summary:ABSTRACT: In preparation for the Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-IV), a summary of recent research studies and the forecasting challenges of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall has been prepared. The extreme rainfall accumulations in Hurricane Harvey (2017) near Houston, Texas and Typhoon Damrey (2017) in southern Vietnam are examples of the TC rainfall forecasting challenges. Some progress is being made in understanding the internal rainfall dynamics via case studies. Environmental effects such as vertical wind shear and terrain-induced rainfall have been studied, as well as the rainfall relationships with TC intensity and structure. Numerical model predictions of TC-related rainfall have been improved via data assimilation, microphysics representation, improved resolution, and ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast techniques. Some attempts have been made to improve the verification techniques as well. A basic forecast challenge for TC-related rainfall is monitoring the existing rainfall distribution via satellite or coastal radars, or from over-land rain gauges. Forecasters also need assistance in understanding how seemingly similar landfall locations relative to the TC experience different rainfall distributions. In addition, forecasters must cope with anomalous TC activity and landfall distributions in response to various environmental effects. Keywords: tropical cyclone, landfall, rainfall, nowcast, forecast verification
ISSN:2225-6032