| Summary: | Because growth environment is affected by climate change, Dacrydium pierrei resources are becoming less and less. Therefore, understanding the effects of environmental variables on seedling-sapling distributions can help gain insight into changes in population recruitment in the context of climate change. The seedling-saplings distribution and variability of Dacrydium pierrei in environmental variables at Bawangling, Hainan, China, was surveyed over a 3-year period. In addition, laboratory experiments measuring the effects of soil moisture on seedling emergence were conducted to identify seedling development characteristics; principal component analysis (PCA) and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) were used to assess how different factors influenced Dacrydium pierrei seedlings-saplings distribution. The results demonstrated that the influence degree of seedling-sapling distribution is soil temperature>litter thickness>available phosphorus>canopy density> available potassium>nitrate nitrogen; a large number of seedling-saplings occurring at altitudes 1140-1300 m; a GMM trained with a C2-L3-H4-A5-I6 combination yielded an accuracy of 72.23% in simulating seedling-saplings distribution; temperature and precipitation have strong impact on seedling-sapling distribution, with increasing soil moisture, seedling emergence shows a positive relationship. This study focuses more on developing a new method for research on the seedling-sapling distribution of Dacrydium pierrei to get reference for its adaptive management with the intense extreme climate change.
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