| Summary: | Background: The early identification of treatment effect is wanted in several settings, including the management of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A potential universal marker is circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). Our prospective study explored the association between progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), and early change of ctDNA after one cycle of chemotherapy in patients with mCRC. Methods: The study included mCRC patients receiving standard first line combination chemotherapy with 5-Fluorouracil (FU), oxaliplatin, and bevacizumab. Hypermethylated neuropeptide Y (NPY) ctDNA (meth-ctDNA) served as a marker analyzed by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The meth-ctDNA level was analyzed in plasma before treatment start and again before cycle two. The patients were divided into two groups according to the dynamics of meth-ctDNA. Low ctDNA (LctDNA) included patients with zero or values of meth-ctDNA decreasing to a level including zero in the 95% confidence interval. High ctDNA (HctDNA) included all other patients (stable, increasing, or slightly decreasing values). The two groups were compared as to PFS and OS. Results: The study included 123 patients. The PFS in the two groups differed significantly with a median of 9.2 and 6.7 months in LctDNA and HctDNA, respectively ( p = 0.0005). This translated into a 12-month difference in OS with a median of 25.4 and 13.5 months, respectively ( p = 0.0001). Conclusions: Early therapeutic reconsideration is of utmost importance. A low level of meth-ctDNA after one cycle of chemotherapy in the first line setting is a potential marker for excellent clinical outcomes. The clinical utility should be confirmed in randomized clinical trials.
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