| Summary: | Transgenic crops that express insecticide genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) are used worldwide against moth and beetle pests. Because these engineered plants can kill over 95% of susceptible larvae, they can rapidly select for resistance. Here, we use a model for a pyramid two-toxin Bt crop to explore the consequences of spatio-temporal variation in the area of Bt crop and non-Bt refuge habitat. We show that variability over time in the proportion of suitable non-Bt breeding habitat, Q, or in the total area of Bt and suitable non-Bt habitat, K, can increase the overall rate of resistance evolution by causing short-term surges of intense selection. These surges can be exacerbated when temporal variation in Q and/or K cause high larval densities in refuges that increase density-dependent mortality; this will give resistant larvae in Bt fields a relative advantage over susceptible larvae that largely depend on refuges. We address the effects of spatio-temporal variation in a management setting for two bollworm pests of cotton, Helicoverpa armigera and H. punctigera, and field data on landscape crop distributions from Australia. Even a small proportion of Bt fields available to egg-laying females when refuges are sparse may result in high exposure to Bt for just a single generation per year and cause a surge in selection. Therefore, rapid resistance evolution can occur when Bt crops are rare rather than common in the landscape. These results highlight the need to understand spatio-temporal fluctuations in the landscape composition of Bt crops and non-Bt habitats in order to design effective resistance management strategies.
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