COVID-19 deterministic and stochastic modelling with optimized daily vaccinations in Saudi Arabia

• Main Authors: Othman A.M. Omar, Yousef Alnafisah, Reda A. Elbarkouky, Hamdy M. Ahmed
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2021-09-01
• Series: Results in Physics
• Subjects: COVID-19; Epidemiological modelling; Fractional stochastic dynamic modelling; Euler-Murayama method; Numerical optimization algorithms
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221137972100721X

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic nature of the COVID-19 temporal dynamics by generating a fractional-order dynamic model and a fractional-order-stochastic model. Initially, we considered the first and second vaccination doses as multiple vaccinations were initiated worldwide. The concerned models are then tested for the Saudi Arabia second virus wave, which is assumed to start on 1st March 2021. Four daily vaccination scenarios for the first and second dose are assumed for 100 days from the wave beginning. One of these scenarios is based on function optimization using the invasive weed optimization algorithm (IWO). After that, we numerically solve the established models using the fractional Euler method and the Euler-Murayama method. Finally, the obtained virus dynamics using the assumed scenarios and the real one started by the government are compared. The optimized scenario using the IWO effectively minimizes the predicted cumulative wave infections with a 4.4 % lower number of used vaccination doses.