Net Flow of Budgetary Means: Evaluation Methods and Socio-Economic Importance

• Main Author: Konovchenko Vyacheslav V.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine 2020-03-01
• Series: Bìznes Inform
• Subjects: budget; net flow of budgetary means; budget figure; social budget expenditures; regression model; neural network
• Online Access: https://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-2020-3_0-pages-312_322.pdf
• ISSN: 2222-4459; 2311-116X

The article is aimed at evaluating the interrelationship between the structural characteristics of expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine and the possibilities of their financing without taking into account revenues from the financial market. It is proposed to expand the list of budget indicators through the«Net flow of budgetary means» indicator in order to increase the validity and accuracy of the budget planning and forecasting. The indicator, defined by the author as: a certain amount of funds directed from the budget to the socially significant financing items without taking into account debt, is proposed. The proposed indicator characterizes the budget’s capacity to provide for public needs at its own expense. The scientific significance of calculating the net flow of budgetary means consists in evaluation of the ability of budget financing to perform functions without active operations in the financial market, which allows: to define the minimum flow of financing for social needs, to clear the financial flow from the debt load; to eliminate external impact. The sequence of calculation of the net flow of budgetary means is defined. The relationship between changes in the volumes of the main social expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine and the net flow of budgetary means is researched by building up a regression model, several non-linear models and a neural network. Based on a comparison of average approximation errors, it is determined that a built up neural network is more accurate in predicting the net flow of budgetary means. Solving the important scientific-practical task of calculating the net flow of budgetary means will improve the financial provision of the socially significant budget items. Prospects for further research within a certain topic will be modeling the distribution of budgets of the State and local budgets of Ukraine and its impact on the socio-economic development of the country.