A retrospective cross-national examination of COVID-19 outbreak in 175 countries: a multiscale geographically weighted regression analysis (January 11-June 28, 2020)

• Main Authors: Ayodeji Emmanuel Iyanda, Richard Adeleke, Yongmei Lu, Tolulope Osayomi, Adeleye Adaralegbe, Mayowa Lasode, Ngozi J. Chima-Adaralegbe, Adedoyin M. Osundina
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2020-10-01
• Series: Journal of Infection and Public Health
• Subjects: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; multiscale model; social-health determinants; medical geography; geovisualization
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120305724
• ISSN: 1876-0341

Objective: This study retrospectively examined the health and social determinants of the COVID-19 outbreak in 175 countries from a spatial epidemiological approach. Methods: We used spatial analysis to examine the cross-national determinants of confirmed cases of COVID-19 based on the World Health Organization official COVID-19 data and the World Bank Indicators of Interest to the COVID-19 outbreak. All models controlled for COVID-19 government measures. Results: The percentage of the population age between 15-64 years (Age15-64), percentage smokers (SmokTot.), and out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPExp) significantly explained global variation in the current COVID-19 outbreak in 175 countries. The percentage population age group 15-64 and out of pocket expenditure were positively associated with COVID-19. Conversely, the percentage of the total population who smoke was inversely associated with COVID-19 at the global level. Conclusions: This study is timely and could serve as a potential geospatial guide to developing public health and epidemiological surveillance programs for the outbreak in multiple countries. Removal of catastrophic medical expenditure, smoking cessation, and observing public health guidelines will not only reduce illness related to COVID-19 but also prevent unecessary deaths.