The fuel consumption increase in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua

• Main Authors: Thomas M. Fullerton Jr, Gabriel Muñoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidad Autonoma de Baja California 2012-07-01
• Series: Estudios Fronterizos
• Subjects: consumo de gasolina; economía fronteriza.
• Online Access: http://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/88
• ISSN: 0187-6961; 2395-9134

This research analyzes short–run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function arima analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in el Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Out–of–sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1 to 24 months into the future.