Summary: | Global macroeconomic adjustments are usually discussed first by the stylized facts and causes global imbalances and then using a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) models in the lines of Godley and Lavoie (2007) and Zhao and Lavoie (2010). Three models are considered. First, fixed prices, three areas with a debt in local currency and with dollar-yuan fixed, but may also include conduct of reserve diversification of China’s central bank and a dollar-yuan according to floating or administered regimes. The second is a generalization of the previous one with flexible prices rather than fixed prices. The third, fixed prices, four areas with the rest of world debt in dollars, include an anchoring of the rest of world and the yuan to the dollar and three scenarios for anchoring to a basket of currencies. Faced with shocks, the fixed parity of the yuan-dollar limits the reduction of global imbalances in favor of China. Diversification of foreign exchange reserves of China’s central bank is changing the nature of adjustments, especially at the expense of the euro area because of the depreciation of the dollar that results. The flexibility of the yuan-dollar parity, however, appears as an effective way to reduce imbalances in all three models. If a freely floating of the yuan appears unrealistic in the current context, a managed exchange rate regime over the yuan-dollar parity adjustment mechanisms gives quite similar. Finally, the model with flexible prices confirms the main results obtained previously.
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