FORECASTING MODEL OF GHG EMISSION IN MANUFACTURING SECTORS OF THAILAND

• Main Authors: Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Polish Society of Ecological Engineering (PTIE) 2017-01-01
• Series: Journal of Ecological Engineering
• Subjects: Manufacturing sectors; environment cost; energy consumption; GHG emission; multiplier
• Online Access: http://www.journalssystem.com/jeeng/Forecasting-model-of-GHG-emission-in-Manufacturing-Sectors-of-Thailand,64566,0,2.html

This study aims to analyze the modeling and forecasting the GHG emission of energy consumption in manufacturing sectors. The scope of the study is to analysis energy consumption and forecasting GHG emission of energy consumption for the next 10 years (2016-2025) and 25 years (2016-2040) by using ARIMAX model from the Input-output table of Thailand. The result shows that iron and steel has the highest value of energy consumption and followed by cement, fluorite, air transport, road freight transport, hotels and places of loading, coal and lignite, petrochemical products, other manufacturing, road passenger transport, respectively. The prediction results show that these models are effective in forecasting by measured by using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The results forecast of each model is as follows: 1) Model 1(2,1,1) shows that GHG emission will be increasing steadily and increasing at 25.17% by the year 2025 in comparison to 2016. 2) Model 2 (2,1,2) shows that GHG emission will be rising steadily and increasing at 41.51% by the year 2040 in comparison to 2016.