Growth dynamic of retail locations: a methodological approach using a logistic model

• Main Authors: Clarice Maraschin, Romulo Krafta
• Format: Article
• Language: deu
• Published: Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités 2013-08-01
• Series: Cybergeo
• Subjects: retail; modeling/modelling; logistic model; Porto Alegre; urban space
• Online Access: http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/26002

This study investigates the processes of growth and development of retail locations in urban space. The formation and development of multiple business centers is part of the contemporary urban landscape, creating heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns which defy the understanding of urban theorists and planners. The study of these processes requires dynamic approaches, consistent with the scale and pace of such changes. This paper presents a proposal for the model of growth dynamic of commercial locations in urban areas over time. It also proposes the adaptation of a logistic model, a nonlinear dynamic model originated in studies of population ecology, which is used to describe growth dynamic in environments with a limited capacity. In this study, the growth of retail locations is represented by the variation in the amount of retail establishments over time in specific urban sectors. In order to develop a preliminary empirical validation of the model, its application is developed in four areas in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil, considering data on the number of shops during 23 years, from 1983 to 2006. The investigation showed a good fit of the model to empirical data in all studied areas.