| Summary: | In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the reduction of rockfall risk provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective capacity against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig under a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently occuring species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Larix decidua, and Abies alba) in future. The forest turned into a Quercus pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, mixed with Pinus sylvestris under RCP4.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (>100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should explore into more details the long-term effect of different adaptive forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.
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