The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain
Abstract This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986–2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after 1 year, this negative effect fading a...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2018-01-01
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| Series: | SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13209-018-0173-5 |
| Summary: | Abstract This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986–2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after 1 year, this negative effect fading away at more distant horizons. We also find that the effects of changes in indirect taxes are larger and that, following a tax increase, investment reacts more than consumption. Overall, our set of estimates is consistent with negative output effects triggered by tax increases, yet the quantitative effects are subject to non-negligible uncertainty that is reflected in wide confidence bands, in line with the extant literature for other countries. |
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| ISSN: | 1869-4187 1869-4195 |