High-resolution analysis of 1 day extreme precipitation in Sicily
Sicily, a major Mediterranean island, has experienced several exceptional precipitation episodes and floods during the last century, with serious damage to human life and the environment. Long-term, rational planning of urban development is indispensable to protect the population and to avoid huge e...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-10-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2347/2015/nhess-15-2347-2015.pdf |
| Summary: | Sicily, a major Mediterranean island, has experienced several exceptional
precipitation episodes and floods during the last century, with serious
damage to human life and the environment. Long-term, rational planning of
urban development is indispensable to protect the population and to avoid
huge economic losses in the future. This requires a thorough knowledge of
the distributional features of extreme precipitation over the complex
territory of Sicily.
In this study, we perform a detailed investigation of observed 1 day
precipitation extremes and their frequency distribution, based on a dense
data set of high-quality, homogenized station records in 1921–2005. We
estimate very high quantiles (return levels) corresponding to 10-, 50- and
100-year return periods, as predicted by a generalized extreme value
distribution. Return level estimates are produced on a regular
high-resolution grid (30 arcsec) using a variant of regional frequency
analysis combined with regression techniques. Results clearly reflect the
complexity of this region, and show the high vulnerability of its eastern
and northeastern parts as those prone to the most intense and potentially
damaging events. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |