Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions

• Main Authors: Gilberto M. Nakamura, George C. Cardoso, Alexandre S. Martinez
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: The Royal Society 2020-02-01
• Series: Royal Society Open Science
• Subjects: stochastic process; epidemic models; monte carlo; fluctuations
• Online Access: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.191504

Compartmental equations are primary tools in the study of disease spreading processes. They provide accurate predictions for large populations but poor results whenever the integer nature of the number of agents is evident. In the latter instance, uncertainties are relevant factors for pathogen transmission. Starting from the agent-based approach, we investigate the role of uncertainties and autocorrelation functions in the susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, including their relationship with epidemiological variables. We find new differential equations that take uncertainties into account. The findings provide improved equations, offering new insights on disease spreading processes.