PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Herni Utami, Yunita Wulan Sari, Subanar Subanar, Abdurakhman Abdurakhman, Gunardi Gunardi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Diponegoro 2019-12-01
Series:Media Statistika
Subjects:
forecasting model
singular spectral analysis
linear recurrent formula
electricity demand
Online Access:https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/21173
id doaj-6bcfbbf0a6514e6b97c59ed5b602efd9
record_format Article
spelling doaj-6bcfbbf0a6514e6b97c59ed5b602efd92020-11-25T03:25:59ZengUniversitas DiponegoroMedia Statistika1979-36932477-06472019-12-0112221422510.14710/medstat.12.2.214-22516039PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)Herni Utami0Yunita Wulan Sari1Subanar Subanar2Abdurakhman Abdurakhman3Gunardi Gunardi4Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah MadaDepartemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah MadaDepartemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah MadaDepartemen Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Gadjah MadaDepartemen Matematika, FMIPA Universitas Gadjah MadaThis paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/21173forecasting modelsingular spectral analysislinear recurrent formulaelectricity demand
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Herni Utami
Yunita Wulan Sari
Subanar Subanar
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman
Gunardi Gunardi
spellingShingle Herni Utami
Yunita Wulan Sari
Subanar Subanar
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman
Gunardi Gunardi
PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
Media Statistika
forecasting model
singular spectral analysis
linear recurrent formula
electricity demand
author_facet Herni Utami
Yunita Wulan Sari
Subanar Subanar
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman
Gunardi Gunardi
author_sort Herni Utami
title PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
title_short PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
title_full PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
title_fullStr PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
title_full_unstemmed PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
title_sort peramalan beban listrik daerah istimewa yogyakarta dengan metode singular spectrum analysis (ssa)
publisher Universitas Diponegoro
series Media Statistika
issn 1979-3693
2477-0647
publishDate 2019-12-01
description This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
topic forecasting model
singular spectral analysis
linear recurrent formula
electricity demand
url https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/21173
work_keys_str_mv AT herniutami peramalanbebanlistrikdaerahistimewayogyakartadenganmetodesingularspectrumanalysisssa
AT yunitawulansari peramalanbebanlistrikdaerahistimewayogyakartadenganmetodesingularspectrumanalysisssa
AT subanarsubanar peramalanbebanlistrikdaerahistimewayogyakartadenganmetodesingularspectrumanalysisssa
AT abdurakhmanabdurakhman peramalanbebanlistrikdaerahistimewayogyakartadenganmetodesingularspectrumanalysisssa
AT gunardigunardi peramalanbebanlistrikdaerahistimewayogyakartadenganmetodesingularspectrumanalysisssa
_version_ 1724594542860042240

Similar Items