PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Herni Utami, Yunita Wulan Sari, Subanar Subanar, Abdurakhman Abdurakhman, Gunardi Gunardi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Diponegoro 2019-12-01
Series:Media Statistika
Subjects:
forecasting model
singular spectral analysis
linear recurrent formula
electricity demand
Online Access:https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/21173
Description
Summary:This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
ISSN:1979-3693
2477-0647

Similar Items