A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

One of the major difficulties with modelling an ongoing epidemic is that often data is limited or incomplete, making it hard to estimate key epidemic parameters and outcomes (e.g. attack rate, peak time, reporting rate, reproduction number). In the current study, we present a model for data-fitting...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Matthew I. Betti, Jane M. Heffernan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2021-01-01
Series:Infectious Disease Modelling
Subjects:
Basic reproduction number
Epidemic curve fitting
COVID-19
Other words
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000051
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spelling doaj-6bae0af8a79d440dbcaebe0f2a19ef302021-04-02T20:08:33ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272021-01-016313323A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemicMatthew I. Betti0Jane M. Heffernan1Mathematics and Computer Science, Mount Allison University, Sackville, New Brunswick, Canada; Corresponding author.Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaOne of the major difficulties with modelling an ongoing epidemic is that often data is limited or incomplete, making it hard to estimate key epidemic parameters and outcomes (e.g. attack rate, peak time, reporting rate, reproduction number). In the current study, we present a model for data-fitting limited infection case data which provides estimates for important epidemiological parameters and outcomes. The model can also provide reasonable short-term (one month) projections. We apply the model to the current and ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in Canada both at the national and provincial/territorial level.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000051Basic reproduction numberEpidemic curve fittingCOVID-19Other words
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Matthew I. Betti
Jane M. Heffernan
spellingShingle Matthew I. Betti
Jane M. Heffernan
A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Infectious Disease Modelling
Basic reproduction number
Epidemic curve fitting
COVID-19
Other words
author_facet Matthew I. Betti
Jane M. Heffernan
author_sort Matthew I. Betti
title A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
title_short A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
title_full A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
title_fullStr A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
title_sort simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current sars-cov-2 pandemic
publisher KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
series Infectious Disease Modelling
issn 2468-0427
publishDate 2021-01-01
description One of the major difficulties with modelling an ongoing epidemic is that often data is limited or incomplete, making it hard to estimate key epidemic parameters and outcomes (e.g. attack rate, peak time, reporting rate, reproduction number). In the current study, we present a model for data-fitting limited infection case data which provides estimates for important epidemiological parameters and outcomes. The model can also provide reasonable short-term (one month) projections. We apply the model to the current and ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in Canada both at the national and provincial/territorial level.
topic Basic reproduction number
Epidemic curve fitting
COVID-19
Other words
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000051
work_keys_str_mv AT matthewibetti asimplemodelforfittingmildsevereandknowncasesduringanepidemicwithanapplicationtothecurrentsarscov2pandemic
AT janemheffernan asimplemodelforfittingmildsevereandknowncasesduringanepidemicwithanapplicationtothecurrentsarscov2pandemic
AT matthewibetti simplemodelforfittingmildsevereandknowncasesduringanepidemicwithanapplicationtothecurrentsarscov2pandemic
AT janemheffernan simplemodelforfittingmildsevereandknowncasesduringanepidemicwithanapplicationtothecurrentsarscov2pandemic
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