THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN AND HUNGARIAN STOCK MARKET INDICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

• Main Authors: Kulcsár Edina, Tarnóczi Tibor
• Format: Article
• Language: deu
• Published: University of Oradea 2012-07-01
• Series: Annals of the University of Oradea: Economic Science
• Subjects: stock indices, exchange rate, financial crisis, macro-indicators, Bayesian statistics
• Online Access: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2012/n1/103.pdf

Nowadays, when we are witnessing a serious macro-level changes, to deal with financial and economic indicators becomes more and more important in the economy, in particular to evaluate the changes of these indicators and especially their impact to the private sector. This paper aims to analyze in comparison for two countries, in what extent can explain the changes of the most important stock market indices with the fluctuations of those two countries national currency exchange rates in euro. To determinate the relationship between the macro indicators we’ve used traditional statistical methods, namely simple linear regression model and the Bayesian statistics. In case of both Romania and Hungary, the analyses show that there is a relationship between exchange rates and the changes of stock indices. If we compare the analysis results of the two countries, we can see that the relationship between the BET index and Lei/EUR exchange rate is much more stronger than between the BUX index and Ft/EUR exchange rate, in the latter case we can see a much weaker relationship.