Development of a “Current Energy Mix Scenario” and a “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario” for electricity demand up to 2100

• Main Authors: Mário J. S. Brito, Tânia Sousa
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Aalborg University Press 2014-06-01
• Series: International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
• Subjects: forecast; electricity production; model- country; historical data; logistic function; polynomial regression
• Online Access: http://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/264

In this work, we develop a model to forecast world electricity production up to 2100. We analyze historical data for electricity production, population and GDP per Capita for the period 1900–2008. We show that electricity production follows general trends. First, there is an electricity intensity target of 0.20-0.25 kWh per unit of GDP (US$2012) as economies mature, except in countries traditionally relying heavily on renewable electricity (hydroelectricity), for whom this target ranges between 0.50 to 0.80 kWh per unit GDP. Also, countries that belong to the same region tend to follow the evolution of electricity production and GDP/Capita of a regional “modelcountry”. Equations that describe the behavior of these model countries are used to forecast electricity production per capita up to 2100 under a low and a high scenario for the evolution of GDP per Capita. For electricity production two main scenarios were set: “Current Energy MixScenario” and “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario”, with two additional sub scenarios considering slightly different electric intensities. Forecasts up to 2100 yield a demand forelectricity production 3.5 to 5 times higher than the current production for the “Current EnergyMix Scenario” and about 9 to 14 times for the “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario”. Forecasts for the “Current Energy Mix Scenario” matched well with forecasts from IEA/EIA (International Energy Agency/ Energy Information Administration) while the forecasts for the“Electricity as the Main Energy Source Scenario” are much higher than current predictions.