An Analysis Method of Black Swan Event based on Impact-spread Tree

• Main Authors: Xinying 馨营 Liu 刘, Hang 航 Li 李, Xiaobing 小兵 Hu 胡
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Atlantis Press 2020-07-01
• Series: Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR)
• Subjects: Black swan effect; impact analysis; impact-spread tree; judgment; air crash
• Online Access: https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125941833/view

The black swan event has the characteristics of rarity and serious consequences. At present, the analysis of black swan events is generally preconceived (that is, the event is assumed to be a black swan event, and then the influence of the event is discussed), or whether it is a black swan event is directly judged according to its characteristics. This method of direct judgment by definition is one-sided and inaccurate, which is not conducive to the development and maturity of research on black swan events. Therefore, this paper solved the problem of whether a method can be used to quantitatively determine whether an event can be called a black swan event before it is defined as a black swan event. This paper proposes a set of analysis methods to determine the black swan event by constructing an impact-spread tree. This method first defines the type of event, analyzes the possible impact range of the event, and draws it into a tree structure. Then, according to the development law of the event, analyzes the impact spread relationship between nodes in the tree structure, and establishes the influence diffusion tree of the event. Finally, by analyzing the impact spread ratio of the event, determine whether it is a black swan event. The case study shows that the method of impact-spread tree can effectively distinguish between black swan events and non-black swan events.