Management of Ecological-Economic Processes of Pollution Accumulation and Assimilation in the Coastal Zone Marine Environment

• Main Authors: I.E. Timchenko, I.K. Ivashchenko, E.M. Igumnova
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Federal State Budget Scientific Institution «Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS» 2017-02-01
• Series: Physical Oceanography
• Subjects: ecological-economic model; pollution accumulation and assimilation in the sea; consideration of sea temperature and sea surface wind
• Online Access: http://physical-oceanography.ru/repository/2017/1/en_201701_07.pdf

A model for managing the balance of pollution (getting into the sea with the coastal runoff) assimilation and accumulation, based on the negative feedback between the coastal economic system efficiency and penalties for the sea coastal zone pollution is proposed. The model is constructed by the Adaptive Balance of Causes method and is intended for finding a rational balance of profit from the use of assimilative resources of the marine environment and the costs of maintaining its quality. The increase of pollutions in the coastal zone is taken as proportional to the volume of product realization. The decrease of pollution concentration is related to the environment protection activities paid for by the production. The model contains the agents for managing the volume of the economic system generalized production release. The agents control pollution accumulation rate at different ones of the bio-chemical processes resulting in the marine environment natural purification. Scenario analysis of ecological-economic processes in the “Land–Sea” system is carried out, and the dependencies of economic subsystem production profitability on penalty sanctions limiting the pollutant flux getting into the sea are constructed. Sea temperature and water mass dynamics effect on these processes is considered. The scenarios of their intra-annual variability are constructed. It is shown that the sea temperature and near-water wind consideration in the model have a significant effect on marine environment pollution level and production profitability. The conclusion is that the proposed adaptive simulation model “Sea–Land” can be used for forecasting the scenarios of coastal subsystem production processes (the volume of generalized product manufacturing, production cost, profitability) in parallel with the forecast of pollution concentration in the sea scenarios.