Developing an index for heavy convective rainfall forecasting over a Mediterranean coastal area
Heavy convective rainfall incidents that occurred over western coastal Greece and led to flash floods are analyzed with respect to mesoscale analysis for the period from January 2006 to June 2011. The synoptic scale circulation is examined throughout the troposphere along with satellite images, ligh...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014-08-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2205/2014/nhess-14-2205-2014.pdf |
| Summary: | Heavy convective rainfall incidents that occurred over western coastal Greece
and led to flash floods are analyzed with respect to mesoscale analysis for
the period from January 2006 to June 2011. The synoptic scale circulation is
examined throughout the troposphere along with satellite images, lightning
data and synoptic observations of weather stations. Well-known instability
indices are calculated and tested against synoptic observations. Taking into
account the severity of the incidents, the performance of the indices was not
as good as expected. Further detailed analysis resulted in the development of
a new index that incorporates formalized experience of local weather and
modeled knowledge of mechanisms of severe thunderstorms. The proposed index
named Local Instability Index (LII), is then evaluated and its performance is
found to be quite satisfactory. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |