Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Tom Britton, Thomas House, Alun L. Lloyd, Denis Mollison, Steven Riley, Pieter Trapman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2015-03-01
Series:Epidemics
Subjects:
Stochastic epidemics
Global transmission
Extinction
Genetic evolution
Endemicity
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000280
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spelling doaj-60d06dfbba384f42b9c8647f04ad6cc22020-11-24T22:42:48ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43651878-00672015-03-0110C545710.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmissionTom Britton0Thomas House1Alun L. Lloyd2Denis Mollison3Steven Riley4Pieter Trapman5Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, SwedenWarwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research Centre (WIDER) and Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UKDepartment of Mathematics and Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USADepartment of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland, UKMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UKDepartment of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way? http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000280Stochastic epidemicsGlobal transmissionExtinctionGenetic evolutionEndemicity
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Tom Britton
Thomas House
Alun L. Lloyd
Denis Mollison
Steven Riley
Pieter Trapman
spellingShingle Tom Britton
Thomas House
Alun L. Lloyd
Denis Mollison
Steven Riley
Pieter Trapman
Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
Epidemics
Stochastic epidemics
Global transmission
Extinction
Genetic evolution
Endemicity
author_facet Tom Britton
Thomas House
Alun L. Lloyd
Denis Mollison
Steven Riley
Pieter Trapman
author_sort Tom Britton
title Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
title_short Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
title_full Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
title_fullStr Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
title_full_unstemmed Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
title_sort five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
publisher Elsevier
series Epidemics
issn 1755-4365
1878-0067
publishDate 2015-03-01
description The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?
topic Stochastic epidemics
Global transmission
Extinction
Genetic evolution
Endemicity
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000280
work_keys_str_mv AT tombritton fivechallengesforstochasticepidemicmodelsinvolvingglobaltransmission
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AT denismollison fivechallengesforstochasticepidemicmodelsinvolvingglobaltransmission
AT stevenriley fivechallengesforstochasticepidemicmodelsinvolvingglobaltransmission
AT pietertrapman fivechallengesforstochasticepidemicmodelsinvolvingglobaltransmission
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