A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System
The use of electric vehicle across the world has become one of the most challenging issues for environmental policies. The galloping climate change and the expected running out of fossil fuels turns the use of such non-polluting cars into a priority for most developed countries. However, such a use...
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2019-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8807120/ |
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doaj-6051fa71c92e46699720804ba18f51e72021-03-30T00:01:36ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362019-01-01712084012085610.1109/ACCESS.2019.29364788807120A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish SystemCatalina Gomez-Quiles0Gualberto Asencio-Cortes1Adolfo Gastalver-Rubio2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3498-885XFrancisco Martinez-Alvarez3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6309-1785Alicia Troncoso4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9801-7999Joan Manresa5Jose C. Riquelme6Jesus M. Riquelme-Santos7Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Seville, Seville, SpainData Science and Big Data Laboratory, Pablo de Olavide University, Seville, SpainIngelectus S.L., Seville, SpainData Science and Big Data Laboratory, Pablo de Olavide University, Seville, SpainData Science and Big Data Laboratory, Pablo de Olavide University, Seville, SpainRed Eléctrica de España, Madrid, SpainDepartment of Computer Science, University of Seville, Seville, SpainDepartment of Electrical Engineering, University of Seville, Seville, SpainThe use of electric vehicle across the world has become one of the most challenging issues for environmental policies. The galloping climate change and the expected running out of fossil fuels turns the use of such non-polluting cars into a priority for most developed countries. However, such a use has led to major concerns to power companies, since they must adapt their generation to a new scenario, in which electric vehicles will dramatically modify the curve of generation. In this paper, a novel approach based on ensemble learning is proposed. In particular, ARIMA, GARCH and PSF algorithms' performances are used to forecast the electric vehicle power consumption in Spain. It is worth noting that the studied time series of consumption is non-stationary and adds difficulties to the forecasting process. Thus, an ensemble is proposed by dynamically weighting all algorithms over time. The proposal presented has been implemented for a real case, in particular, at the Spanish Control Centre for the Electric Vehicle. The performance of the approach is assessed by means of WAPE, showing robust and promising results for this research field.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8807120/Time series forecastingelectric vehiclepower consumptionensemble learning |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
Catalina Gomez-Quiles Gualberto Asencio-Cortes Adolfo Gastalver-Rubio Francisco Martinez-Alvarez Alicia Troncoso Joan Manresa Jose C. Riquelme Jesus M. Riquelme-Santos |
| spellingShingle |
Catalina Gomez-Quiles Gualberto Asencio-Cortes Adolfo Gastalver-Rubio Francisco Martinez-Alvarez Alicia Troncoso Joan Manresa Jose C. Riquelme Jesus M. Riquelme-Santos A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System IEEE Access Time series forecasting electric vehicle power consumption ensemble learning |
| author_facet |
Catalina Gomez-Quiles Gualberto Asencio-Cortes Adolfo Gastalver-Rubio Francisco Martinez-Alvarez Alicia Troncoso Joan Manresa Jose C. Riquelme Jesus M. Riquelme-Santos |
| author_sort |
Catalina Gomez-Quiles |
| title |
A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System |
| title_short |
A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System |
| title_full |
A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System |
| title_fullStr |
A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A Novel Ensemble Method for Electric Vehicle Power Consumption Forecasting: Application to the Spanish System |
| title_sort |
novel ensemble method for electric vehicle power consumption forecasting: application to the spanish system |
| publisher |
IEEE |
| series |
IEEE Access |
| issn |
2169-3536 |
| publishDate |
2019-01-01 |
| description |
The use of electric vehicle across the world has become one of the most challenging issues for environmental policies. The galloping climate change and the expected running out of fossil fuels turns the use of such non-polluting cars into a priority for most developed countries. However, such a use has led to major concerns to power companies, since they must adapt their generation to a new scenario, in which electric vehicles will dramatically modify the curve of generation. In this paper, a novel approach based on ensemble learning is proposed. In particular, ARIMA, GARCH and PSF algorithms' performances are used to forecast the electric vehicle power consumption in Spain. It is worth noting that the studied time series of consumption is non-stationary and adds difficulties to the forecasting process. Thus, an ensemble is proposed by dynamically weighting all algorithms over time. The proposal presented has been implemented for a real case, in particular, at the Spanish Control Centre for the Electric Vehicle. The performance of the approach is assessed by means of WAPE, showing robust and promising results for this research field. |
| topic |
Time series forecasting electric vehicle power consumption ensemble learning |
| url |
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8807120/ |
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