Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps
<p>In this study, we propose a methodology to estimate the spatial distribution of destabilizing rock glaciers, with a focus on the French Alps. We mapped geomorphological features that can be typically found in cases of rock glacier destabilization (e.g. crevasses and scarps) using orthoimage...
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doaj-5f3305e7694345acb8bc6134bea0bd352020-11-24T21:02:28ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242019-01-011314115510.5194/tc-13-141-2019Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French AlpsM. Marcer0M. Marcer1C. Serrano2C. Serrano3A. Brenning4X. Bodin5J. Goetz6P. Schoeneich7Institut d'Urbanisme et Géographie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, FranceLaboratoire EDYTEM, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, Le Bourget-du-Lac, FranceInstitut d'Urbanisme et Géographie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, FranceLaboratoire EDYTEM, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, Le Bourget-du-Lac, FranceDepartment of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, GermanyLaboratoire EDYTEM, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, Le Bourget-du-Lac, FranceDepartment of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, GermanyInstitut d'Urbanisme et Géographie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France<p>In this study, we propose a methodology to estimate the spatial distribution of destabilizing rock glaciers, with a focus on the French Alps. We mapped geomorphological features that can be typically found in cases of rock glacier destabilization (e.g. crevasses and scarps) using orthoimages taken from 2000 to 2013. A destabilization rating was assigned by taking into account the evolution of these mapped destabilization geomorphological features and by observing the surface deformation patterns of the rock glacier, also using the available orthoimages. This destabilization rating then served as input to model the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization in relation to terrain attributes and to spatially predict the susceptibility to destabilization at a regional scale. Significant evidence of destabilization could be observed in 46 rock glaciers, i.e. 10 % of the total active rock glaciers in the region. Based on our susceptibility model of destabilization occurrence, it was found that this phenomenon is more likely to occur in elevations around the 0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C isotherm (2700–2900 m a.s.l.), on north-facing slopes, steep terrain (25 to 30<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>) and flat to slightly convex topographies. Model performance was good (AUROC <span class="inline-formula">=</span> 0.76), and the susceptibility map also performed well at reproducing observable patterns of destabilization. About 3 km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span> of creeping permafrost, or 10 % of the surface occupied by active rock glaciers, had a high susceptibility to destabilization. Considering we observed that only half of these areas of creep are currently showing destabilization evidence, we suspect there is a high potential for future rock glacier destabilization within the French Alps.</p>https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/141/2019/tc-13-141-2019.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
M. Marcer M. Marcer C. Serrano C. Serrano A. Brenning X. Bodin J. Goetz P. Schoeneich |
spellingShingle |
M. Marcer M. Marcer C. Serrano C. Serrano A. Brenning X. Bodin J. Goetz P. Schoeneich Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps The Cryosphere |
author_facet |
M. Marcer M. Marcer C. Serrano C. Serrano A. Brenning X. Bodin J. Goetz P. Schoeneich |
author_sort |
M. Marcer |
title |
Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps |
title_short |
Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps |
title_full |
Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the French Alps |
title_sort |
evaluating the destabilization susceptibility of active rock glaciers in the french alps |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
The Cryosphere |
issn |
1994-0416 1994-0424 |
publishDate |
2019-01-01 |
description |
<p>In this study, we propose a methodology to estimate the spatial
distribution of destabilizing rock glaciers, with a focus on the French Alps.
We mapped geomorphological features that can be typically found in cases of
rock glacier destabilization (e.g. crevasses and scarps) using orthoimages
taken from 2000 to 2013. A destabilization rating was assigned by taking into
account the evolution of these mapped destabilization geomorphological
features and by observing the surface deformation patterns of the rock
glacier, also using the available orthoimages. This destabilization rating
then served as input to model the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization
in relation to terrain attributes and to spatially predict the
susceptibility to destabilization at a regional scale. Significant evidence
of destabilization could be observed in 46 rock glaciers, i.e. 10 % of the
total active rock glaciers in the region. Based on our susceptibility model
of destabilization occurrence, it was found that this phenomenon is more
likely to occur in elevations around the 0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C isotherm (2700–2900 m a.s.l.),
on north-facing slopes, steep terrain (25 to 30<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>) and flat to slightly
convex topographies. Model performance was good (AUROC <span class="inline-formula">=</span> 0.76), and the
susceptibility map also performed well at reproducing observable patterns of
destabilization. About 3 km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span> of creeping permafrost, or 10 % of the
surface occupied by active rock glaciers, had a high susceptibility to
destabilization. Considering we observed that only half of these areas of
creep are currently showing destabilization evidence, we suspect there is a
high potential for future rock glacier destabilization within the French
Alps.</p> |
url |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/141/2019/tc-13-141-2019.pdf |
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