| Summary: | BackgroundImmunotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, and prognosis of colorectal cancer are associated with MSI. Biopsy pathology cannot fully reflect the MSI status and heterogeneity of rectal cancer.PurposeTo develop a radiomic-based model to preoperatively predict MSI status in rectal cancer on MRI.AssessmentThe patients were divided into two cohorts (training and testing) at a 7:3 ratio. Radiomics features, including intensity, texture, and shape, were extracted from the segmented volumes of interest based on T2-weighted and ADC imaging.Statistical TestsIndependent sample t test, Mann-Whitney test, the chi-squared test, Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis and multi-variate logistic regression analysisResultsThe radiomics models were significantly associated with MSI status. The T2-based model showed an area under the curve of 0.870 with 95% CI: 0.794–0.945 (accuracy, 0.845; specificity, 0.714; sensitivity, 0.976) in training set and 0.895 with 95% CI, 0.777–1.000 (accuracy, 0.778; specificity, 0.887; sensitivity, 0.772) in testing set. The ADC-based model had an AUC of 0.790 with 95% CI: 0.794–0.945 (accuracy, 0.774; specificity, 0.714; sensitivity, 0.976) in training set and 0.796 with 95% CI, 0.777–1.000 (accuracy, 0.778; specificity, 0.889; sensitivity, 0.772) in testing set. The combined model integrating T2 and ADC features showed an AUC of 0.908 with 95% CI: 0.845–0.971 (accuracy, 0.857; specificity, 0.762; sensitivity, 0.952) in training set and 0.926 with 95% CI: 0.813-1.000 (accuracy, 0.852; specificity, 1.000; sensitivity, 0.778) in testing set. Calibration curve showed that the combined score had a good calibration degree, and the decision curve demonstrated that the combined score was of benefit for clinical use.Data ConclusionRadiomics analysis of T2W and ADC images showed significant relevance in the prediction of microsatellite status, and the accuracy of combined model of ADC and T2W features was better than either alone.
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