Forecasting of the After-Effects of A(H7N9) Modelled Outbreak in the Territory of the Russian Federation

• Main Authors: V. B. Kirillov, S. L. Kirillova, S. V. Borisevich
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Federal Government Health Institution, Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe” 2016-06-01
• Series: Проблемы особо опасных инфекций
• Subjects: грипп а(h7n9); экономический ущерб; прогнозирование; индекс daly; a(h7n9) flu; economic loss; forecasting; daly index
• Online Access: https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/305
• ISSN: 0370-1069; 2658-719X

Objective of the study is to evaluate economic losses in the consequence of A(H7N9) virus emergence in the territory of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods. Economic damage from induced fatalities has been predicted using DALY index, taking into account the life loss, depending upon the age of the infected persons and associated amount of short-received gross domestic product (GDP). Results and conclusions. Since nowadays there are reported cases of the disease in China, one should expect individual cases of flu among those, arriving in the Russian Federation from this country. Economic loss is forecasted for the outbreak involving infection of two individuals with A(H7N9) virus; the age of the first patient is over 50, and the outcome of his disease will be lethal. Treatment expenses for two patients may come up to 10.9-21.8 thousand rubles, and economic impact from short-received GDP - up to 3900 thousand rubles.